National Projections For This Year and Next


National projections for this year and next

Total existing home sales for 2009 should increase about two percent to about 5 million units. Sales will pick up about 11 percent in 2010.

New home sales will decline about 18 percent in 2009 from 2008 to 398,000 units before rising about 21 percent in 2010. Note that while these percentage gains are large, we are starting from a very low level.

Median home prices for new and existing homes are expected to continue their decline this year, falling about eight percent and 13.0 percent, respectively. Prices should stabilize by mid-2010 and post a slight increase for all of 2010.

Purchase originations should post a two percent drop to $718 billion and should pick up about 12 percent in 2010, as both new and existing home sales increase and home prices stabilize.

Refinance originations should increase by about 60 percent to $1.25 trillion in 2009 but will drop about 39 percent in 2010 as mortgage rates rise further.

Total mortgage production will be up about 30 percent to $1.96 trillion this year from an estimated $1.5 trillion in 2008. Total originations should see a decline of about 21 percent in 2010 to $1.56 trillion as a drop in refinance originations will outweigh the increase in purchase originations.


MBA’s mission is to promote education and a forum for sharing ideas, information and ideals. It is our goal to promote our industry as professionals and to enhance our relationships with our business partners and our community.



MBA’s mission is to serve its membership by representing their legislative and regulatory interests before the United States Congress and federal agencies; by meeting their educational needs through programs and a range of periodicals and publications; and by supporting their business interests with a variety of research initiatives and other products and services. MBA performs four primary roles as it works to serve its members and their business interests. We are the voice of the real estate finance industry; a learning center; a forum for sharing information and ideas; and we are the real estate finance industries.

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