Archive for September, 2009

Sensationalism And The Housing Bubble

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

This makes me mad every time I see it. Either the National Association of Business Economists is full of people with no real business experience or fools. This is a headline from a major online Real Estate publication, “Economists See Credit Problems as Bigger Threat than Terrorism.”

I know they were all alive just seven years ago when terrorism cost the lives of three thousand American citizens. That headline goes beyond sensationalism. It is rude and insensitive.

The article goes on to say that one in three members of the NABE, “…Said the housing boom can be described as a ‘serious National bubble.’ Then later in the article three in four said they would “buy a house today if they intended to use it as their primary residence.”

Would someone please tell these academic fools that housing is local in nature? While many major markets suffered and are suffering from the overzealousness of investors followed by the overzealousness of foolish subprime lenders, there are many markets that are healthy and many more that are suffering a softening but nothing close to a collapse.

These gloom and doom headlines supported by a minority of questionable economist opinions feed the problem they are describing. While the facts support the opposite conclusion. Even the economists own research supports the opposite conclusion.

In the same article, “Asked to look five years into the future, 42 percent expected US home prices to remain flat, 41 percent said prices would rise.” Then how did 34 percent of the same group call this a bubble that is fed by a threat bigger than terrorism.

Let’s give credit where it is due. “59 percent still say there is no national housing bubble, only significant local bubbles. Another 8 percent say there’s no bubble at all and that the market is functioning correctly.”

Hooray for those groups. They got it right. There are some local bubbles where there were hundreds and thousands of development parcels and homes developed and built in anticipation of future sales and the sales that were feeding that demand was investor speculation (Boise and Sarasota to name two).

In late 2005 and through 2006 the investors realized that the boom was being fed by their own demand so withdrew. This left tremendous inventory in some cities or areas of cities.

Unfortunately, in 2006 this was immediately followed by the secondary market lenders realizing that they had allowed a foolish combination of underwriting standards for the previous five years or so. They were buying loans that allowed buyers to have both, little or no down payment and marginal credit. How this happened (and who should be prosecuted for it) is a mystery that will likely remain unsolved.

The result was in some communities around the country, particularly where there were high priced homes and with less sophisticated buyers; many of these mortgages were used to purchase homes. That created additional pockets of excess inventory which stalled prices in those areas.

Now the majority of lenders loaning jumbo loans, over 417,000 have stopped funding these high-end loans for some period of time. This will further increase inventory and dampen prices in some areas.

Notice the language, dampen prices in some areas. Most of the country is experiencing a normal buyer’s market that normally follows a long healthy seller’s market.

The latter group of economists put it perfectly. The market is functioning correctly. In 1986 after two to three years of a soft buyer’s market not unlike what we are experiencing now (although it was driven by different causes) there was a long strong period of a healthy seller’s market with steady appreciation.

There was a momentary softer buyer’s market around the Gulf War in 1991 (although not caused by it) followed by over a decade of a healthy buyers market that lasted until 2006. If we learn from history strong seller’s markets last longer than softer buyer’s markets.

So again the economists got this right. The same article said 58% of the economists predicted a ‘meaningful’ recovery in U.S. housing markets before the second half of 2008 or in the second half of 2008. The majority of the other 42% predicted the recovery in 2009.

This is completely consistent with history. This two or three years of soft buyer’s market with slightly flattening prices will likely be followed by five or more years of a healthy seller’s market with equally healthy price appreciation.

REALTORs® all learned in their first Real Estate class that the market is driven by supply and demand. So as long as there is an increasing population of people with reasonable or better incomes, the demand will keep the market healthy.

Add to that the fact that the Federal government repeatedly states that they realize that the Real Estate market is critical to the health of the economy and they will do whatever is necessary to keep mortgage money available.

It all adds up to a principal residence continuing to be the safest and smartest investment for a person living in this fabulous nation. (Just be careful of areas that have experienced rapid appreciation for more than twenty-four months. There could be a windfall or just a fall looming.)

If you are associated with Real Estate, please separate the sensationalism from the truth. If you are in most communities in this country everything, is pretty normal. Prices are appreciating a little slower but still appreciating. Houses are on the market longer. Buyers are fussier. Yes, it is tougher to sell Real Estate. But you still have one of the best jobs in the world with more personal freedom and opportunity for success than any other business person or professional on earth.

If you are in one of those tougher markets, my heart is with you. You do have an uphill battle for another twelve to twenty four months. You have my strongest wish that you can survive and succeed through this. If not, come back to the business in a couple of years. I feel comfortable promising you that the good times will roll again in the not too distant future.

I love this business for what it provides to our society, the people in it, and the strong bright professionals that make me proud to be a part of it.

Rich Levin is a nationally known coach, educator and speaker. Rich has been in the Real Estate Business for over 30 years with the last 15 dedicated to coaching and speaking. His specialty is working with productive Real Estate Agents and Brokers taking them to their highest levels of production and performance in their business and in their lives. He is a regular contributor to various Real Estate publications and has spoken at events from small offices to NAR convention as well as coaching top Agents from across the country. He is CPBA and e-PRO certified.

Contact him at 585-244-2700 or visit Ask Rich a question at

Working with a REALTOR®

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

What is a REALTOR®?

REALTORS® are licensed real estate professionals who are members of the National Association of REALTORS®, the New York State Association of REALTORS® and their local board or association of REALTORS®. They must abide by a strict code of ethics, and their job is to ensure you get what you need throughout the entire home buying and selling process.

Home buyers benefit from using a REALTOR®

Buying a home is probably the biggest single investment you’ll ever make. When purchasing a home, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with knowledgeable people within the real estate industry, including a true professional—your local REALTOR®.

• A REALTOR® helps a buyer determine how much home they can actually afford. Often a REALTOR® can suggest additional ways to accrue the down payment and explain alternative financing methods.

•  A REALTOR® has access to thousands of listings and can evaluate those listings in terms of affordability and suitability – size, style, features, location, etc. A REALTOR® will not waste time showing homes that do not meet their needs.

• A REALTOR® can supply information on real estate values, taxes, utility costs, municipal services and facilities, and may be aware of proposed zoning changes that could affect a consumer’s decision to buy.

• A REALTOR® can often suggest changes within an available home that could make it more suitable to a buyer’s needs.

• A REALTOR® has no emotional ties to available homes therefore he/she can point out advantages and disadvantages in an objective manner.

• When a REALTOR® is acting as a buyer’s agent, he/she will negotiate the most favorable price and terms on behalf of the buyer.

• A REALTOR® usually knows the local money market and can tell a buyer about financing options.

• A REALTOR® can explain the closing process in advance and tell a buyer if local law requires an attorney to be present. A REALTOR® can provide the buyer with a list of qualified attorneys if the buyer doesn’t have one.

Sellers benefit from using a REALTOR®

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the median home price for sellers who use a licensed agent is 16 percent higher than a home sold directly by the owner. Selling a home is a complex transaction that takes time, effort and expertise.

• A REALTOR® can help set a realistic competitive price for the seller and figure the approximate net proceeds for the sale based on types of loans, the seller’s outstanding loan balance and closing costs.

• A REALTOR® is familiar with the local home loan market, knows if seller assistance is advisable and can help a seller decide the type of financing that’s best to expedite the sale.

• REALTORS® ensure potential buyers are “qualified” as to their affordable price range prior to showing them a seller’s home.

• A REALTOR® can list the seller’s home in a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and can work with other REALTORS® to assure the seller a wider range of prospective buyers.

• A REALTOR® will advise prospects of all aspects and conditions of the seller’s home, even faults the seller doesn’t intend to fix. This will protect the seller from later objections.

• A REALTOR® handles most all aspects of the selling process including: phone inquiries, making appointments, open houses and showings, along with potential buyer follow-ups.

• A REALTOR® is a skilled salesperson who knows how to merchandise a seller’s home efficiently.

• If a REALTOR® is the seller’s agent, he/she maintains objectivity in responding to criticisms by the buyer and in presenting offers and counter-offers until an agreement is reached.

• A REALTOR® will familiarize the seller with the closing procedures in advance and often attend the event to explain any questions.

REALTORS® work for home buyers and sellers

Let your broker work for you. A qualified real estate professional can answer questions on price, terms, possession, etc., and maintain objectivity in resolving to buyer objections. REALTORS® bring buyers and seller together to negotiate an agreement satisfactory to both parties. Before the first showing and beyond the final sale, you’ll get the know-how and service you deserve when employing the services of a New York REALTOR®.

*Article courtesy of the New York State Associations of REALTORS®.